When Europe’s dreams turn into nightmares
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the collapse of the Soviet empire in central and eastern Europe, and the subsequent dissolution of the Soviet Union, the West led by the United States won the Cold War. The world became unipolar and American hegemony indisputable. As for the Europeans, they saw they had much to gain with peace established on the continent and democratic governance replacing dictatorships, also with the opening up of new markets and the removal of economic borders, with powerful international institutions and common rules. A mild, global version of the European model in other words. This is what Europe’s dreams were made of in the golden age under the protection of the US, which the Europeans wanted to believe would remain generous leaving them space to promote their own interests. In recent years, however, the world has been turned upside down and those European dreams have curdled into nightmares. The worst thing is that Europeans are still struggling to wake up.
An openly revisionist Russia started a war in Ukraine because it believes the victors of the Cold War had repeatedly ignored its red lines: yet another proof that it is sometimes easier to win a war than to win peace. A war began in 2022 with Russia invading Ukraine on the very doorstep of the European Union. Lives are being lost by the hundred thousand, Ukraine is being destroyed, and the cost to Europe is enormous. And now the Europeans can only observe from the sidelines, frustrated if not fearful, as President Trump negotiates directly with President Putin. The Europeans are trying to influence developments in any way they can, be it by flattering the hegemon or making economic concessions. But without a realistic plan for the next day or a seat at the negotiating table, even though they will be the ones who will ultimately have to pick up the bill.
The other war in the Middle East is turning into a massacre of the Palestinians in Gaza. Mr Netanyahu’s Israel is establishing itself as a superpower in the wider Middle East region; a military superpower that systematically ignores basic rules of international law—a fact on which international institutions, humanitarian organizations, the Israeli opposition and thousands of Jews and others around the world agree on. But nothing seems likely to change as long as Mr Netanyahu continues to enjoy the active support of President Trump, or just being given a kind of carte blanche by the US president. Again, the Europeans are simply watching on, perplexed but also divided. They are unable to impose sanctions of any kind on Israel, or influence developments, primarily because Germany, for historical reasons familiar to all, continues to block any initiatives in this direction along with a few other European countries. History can sometimes play strange games when victims are transformed into persecutors. And Europe is losing its credibility. What European values can it exhort exactly? France, with a few other countries following in its wake, is trying to salvage Europe’s honour by declaring its intention to recognize a Palestinian state. But which Palestinian state?
The essence of the US-Europe relationship is also changing. American interest has for some years now pivoted to Asia for geopolitical and economic reasons. And not only. The demographic composition of the US population is also changing due to the steady increase in the proportion of American citizens of Asian and Latin American origin (indeed, many of President Trump’s voters have strong views on this matter). In his second term, the US president is in practice abolishing the distinction between foes and allies, while also establishing unpredictability as a key element of his foreign policy. And he is exacting a high price for US protection. The Europeans are giving in while hoping for better days to come.
A world in which trade, investment, technology and financial transactions are increasingly being turned into instruments of strategic rivalry and political power, a world without rules in which the right of the strongest increasingly prevails, is not a world for which Europe was at all prepared. True, it is trying to adapt and react collectively, because, individually, there is no hope for European countries. Things are definitely on the move, taboos are being broken—on European defence cooperation, for example. But the EU is still moving at a snail’s pace while the world around it presses ahead at high speed. The consensual processes of a (more or less) united Europe are extremely time-consuming, many national governments are weak and, most important of all, Europe suffers from a serious leadership deficit.
The image of European leaders at the NATO summit in The Hague and more recently of a smaller number of them assembled at the White House is certainly not one that will convince European citizens that Europe is a political power to be reckoned with, let alone offering a vision to inspire younger generations. And this is where a particularly dangerous vicious circle is set in motion. Europe’s leaders are not rising to the challenge and hence fail to convince their fellow citizens who in turn take more distance away from politics and the crisis of democracy deepens—this may sound rather familiar at home. Europe’s leaders will most likely claim that this is how they have so far avoided the worst. But they probably won’t convince many; indeed, I doubt they would even convince themselves.
